Election 2008: How are the pollsters doing?

Not so great.

Here is what Zogby predicted for Iowa on December 30, 2007, four days before the Iowa caucus: Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Clinton Leads Dems; GOP Deadlocked

  • Hillary Clinton: 31%
  • Barack Obama: 27%

Needless to say the actual results were slightly off. Now, we all know that polls come with fine print, margins of error, need to be interpreted etc. So while the Zogby poll may not have been “wrong” scientifically, it doesn’t seem to me to have been entirely accurate either.

Be that as it may, yesterday, on January 4, 2008, four days before the New Hampshire primaries, here’s what Zogby sees in the cards: Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby New Hampshire Poll: McCain Leads Romney; Clinton Leads Obama as Edwards Hits 20%

  • Hillary Clinton: 32%
  • Barack Obama: 26%

It will be very interesting to watch how those numbers will change over the next 72 hours. And change they will, read my lips.

3 Responses to “Election 2008: How are the pollsters doing?”

  1. Tim Says:

    Ok, so as of this morning, Zogby has Obama leading Clinton 42 over 29: Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby New Hampshire Tracking Poll: Obama, McCain Enjoy Solid Leads As Election Day Dawns

  2. Tim Says:

    And in what can only be considered a major twist of events, Clinton pulls ahead of Obama 39 over 36 (or somewhere in that region). All polls had it wrong.

  3. Tim Says:

    Zogby tries to explain: Polling the New Hampshire Primaries: What Happened?